Modelling and Forecasting for Government Training Course

Course Code

ModelFore4Gov

Duration

14 hours (usually 2 days including breaks)

Overview

The objective of the course is to enable participants to gain a mastery of the basics of modelling and forecasting for government.

Course Outline

  • Modelling in government
  • Hypothesis testing
    • Why test a hypothesis?
    • Type I and type II errors
  • Estimating the tax gap
  • Case studies using econometric & regression models in government
  • Forecasting and time series models in government
    • Shocks, trends and seasonality
    • Forecasting tax receipts using regression and econometric modelling 
    • Sensitivity analysis and validation
  • Prediction validation techniques. 
  • Hold out samples 
  • Prediction intervals
  • Comparative analysis of forecasts 
    • Forecast Performance Measures

Testimonials

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